Macau Casinos Hit New Post-COVID High in 2025 Despite December Slump

Macau’s gaming industry saw a 9.1% annual revenue surge in 2025 to MOP247.4 billion (US$30.86 billion), according to data from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. This marks its best performance since COVID-19 disruptions began in early 2020.

While the full-year figures reflect recovery momentum, December results fell short of seasonal forecasts, resulting in a monthly decline. The sector remains in rebuilding mode, with 2025 totals still 15.4% below pre-pandemic 2019 levels (MOP292.46 billion), highlighting lingering challenges despite progress.

December Gains Trail Forecasts

Macau’s casinos closed 2025 with MOP20.89 billion (US$2.61 billion) in December gaming revenue, marking a 14.8% annual improvement but falling 0.9% short of November’s MOP21.09 billion haul. The dip disappointed analysts who had projected a new post-pandemic monthly record following November’s stronger-than-anticipated results.

Deutsche Bank analysts noted that the month underperformed historical patterns, with a 4.1% daily average decline from November and an 8.5% gap compared to December 2019. While year-end revenue growth signals continued recovery, the bank emphasized the sector remains “below typical seasonal trends,” with December figures lingering at 91.5% of pre-COVID benchmarks. Market watchers cite the soft finish as evidence of uneven recovery momentum despite annual gains.

Recovery Defines Seasonal Dip

Deutsche Bank analyst Steven Pizzella highlighted December’s 480-basis-point deviation from 2013-2019 norms, which typically saw a 70-basis-point gain. The month’s 8.5% shortfall against 2019 levels continued a narrowing trend from September’s 17.2% gap and October’s 8.9% deficit.

While acknowledging recovery “may be stabilizing,” the bank cautioned progress remains slower than historical seasonal trends suggest, with December’s 14.8% annual growth undershooting its 17-22% channel-check forecasts.

2026 Outlook

Macau’s 2025 gaming revenue outperformed the government’s revised MOP228 billion forecast by 8.5%, despite mid-year downward adjustments. Officials maintain guarded expectations for 2026, with the November fiscal budget projecting MOP236 billion, a figure Secretary of Economy and Finance Tai Kin Ip defended as “prudent” given Macau’s vulnerability to international economies during legislative discussions.

Analysts signal measured optimism, with Deutsche Bank forecasting 10.9% year-on-year growth for January 2026 (US$2.53 billion) and a 5.8% full-year projection. The bank’s 2027 estimate of US$34.4 billion suggests a gradual recovery.

Seaport Research Partners attributed 2025’s gains to revitalized VIP and premium mass segments, fueled by streamlined visa processes, enhanced liquidity channels, and operator reinvestment strategies.